The S&P 500 decline refusal will prove to be temporary and the Pinched Consumer Retail Sales Data will continue serving as a recessionary reminder.
This five-part tweet series explains why the bullish results of yesterday don’t change the medium-term bearish picture. (There will be more breathing space once the opex is finished.) I also discuss the degree to which economic surprises are affecting the bullish outlook.
Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD), too, disappointed. The language they used confirmed that there will be more weakness in the consumer market. There’s also the matter of debt ceiling, which is worth maximizing. Remember this impressive array of negative factors.
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Here’s a look at the USD market with additional commentary.
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We’ll start with the charts. (All courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). Today’s article is 8 pages long.
S&P500 and Nasdaq Outlook
The day should be a risk-off one, with a close under 4,136 but without the acceleration that comes from the 4,0xx handles. The 4,115 level is still difficult to overcome and will require more commitment from the bonds, such as when Fed officials speak later today and keep their focus on an unending inflation battle and everything that comes with it.
The modest increase in the S&P will not be sufficient to propel it to 4,149 or beyond. The opposite would also be true, as the line of new highs and new lows on the progress-decline graph would indicate a false dawn in this range.
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Monica Kingsley’s essays, information and research are all based on the latest and most accurate data. It may be wrong despite careful research, and it is subject to changes without or with notice.
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